RED QUEENS AND INCREASING RETURNS

Dr. Thornburg discusses the competitive forces behind one of the six forces that drive emerging technologies, the red queen; who gets her name from "Through the Looking Glass", a story by Lewis Carol in which Alice is running as fast she can alongside the Red Queen. When Alice ask why they are not making any progress the Red Queen tell her that, in this world, you need to run as fast as you can to stay in the same place. Dr. Thornburg goes on to say, when a Red Queen comes about, it has an enormous impact, because of the competition between technologies. The consequence of a fierce battle between two technologies; each one trying to stay a step ahead of each other, results in the other technologies being left behind.

Dr. Thornburg also discusses increasing return and says that if you have a couple of innovations that hit the market at the same time, it is possible that one of them; just by chance, capture people imagination more than the others because they are competing. Dr. Thornburg concludes that the other one will become extinct. He furthermore says it is not always the best technology that wins. In an article by Arthur, "Increasing Returns and the New World of Business", (1996) he states that if a product that got ahead thereby got further ahead, how would markets work? He used the example of CP/M, DOS and Macintosh who were competing operating systems. Once DOS/IBM got ahead, even though it was not the best operating system, it locked in the market (p. 102).

When I decided to use Blade Runners for the science fiction assignment in Module 4, I had a friend burn a copy of the movie from a collection of movies he already had. He had purchased these movie years ago from a video vendor. I already had a DVD player to view the movie.

Competition between DVDs and Videos on demand is an example of increasing return. For example, store brought DVDs cost more than downloading a video from Netflix or another source. In extreme weather conditions, people are not going to travel to Wal-Mart or Best Buy to purchase expensive videos when they can download the movie and burn a copy for further use. People who typically burn copies of movies or videos have the options of viewing these videos or movies on their DVDs or computers. I think the cost and time factors are going to be the deciding elements that drive DVDs to extinction.

McLuhan’s Tetrad


ENHANCES: Downloaded movies and videos have the same quality as store brought movies. They also come in Blu-ray. They are relatively less expensive than movies purchase from Wal-Mart or Best Buy. You can also view these movies on both your computer and DVD players.


OBSOLETE: As more and more people download movie from Nexflix and other movies sites the DVD will become obsolete.


RETRIEVAL: Rekindle the old VHS that no longer exist.



REVERSAL: The WD TV HD Media Player allows you to play your downloaded movies, music or photos into your big screen. It accepts flash drives and external hard disks as media source.

References

Arthur, W. B. (1996). Increasing returns and the new world of business. Harvard Business Review, 74(4), 100−109. Search using the Business Source Premier database by the article's title.

Thornburg, D. (2008c). Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration.

Digital media players will replace DVD players in the future ...
Sep 3, 2009 ... I'm guessing that in the future, DVD's and BluRay discs will be limited to the collectors and disc enthusiasts. Similar to what happened ...
http://www.calvinshub.com/2009/09/digital-media-players-will-replace-dvd-players-in-the-future/

Paul Snyder: The Future of Cinephilia: Will Streaming Movies ...
Paul Snyder: The Future of Cinephilia: Will Streaming Movies Replace DVD? Huffington Post Media | Jun. 4, 2010, 7:25 PM | 0 | Comment » • comment ...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-snyder/the-future-of-cinephilia_b_601437.html

Vodcasts:
Dr. Thornburg, “Increasing Returns” (approx. 5 minutes)
Dr. Thornburg, “Red Queens” (approx. 7 minutes)